Ascot, Haydock and further afield this weekend.....

Things have been rather quiet since the big York meeting with too many seconds for comfort and too few winners. We were a bit thin on the ground in terms of runners at York as it was, but Lyric Street ran well for us in the Melrose despite his big weight. He was drawn towards the inside and the idea was to be prominent with him, but he lost his place early in some early scrimmaging which meant unfortunately that he ended up widest of all around the home turn and then found himself outpaced as the pace increased. He did well to get as close as he did in the circumstances, having no trouble with the trip, but he’s a horse that’s all about next year in all honesty when he’ll have strengthened up and will hopefully need less time to recover between his races. The following day Manighar ran well to be fourth in the Prix Kergolay at Deauville but just didn’t have Juxebox Jury’s speed and class in a race that was run to suit Mark Johnston’s charge more than ours. That’s it for him in Europe for this season, as he is one of our team earmarked for Australia, so he’ll go into quarantine next week before flying out on September 22^nd along with with Drunken Sailor, who like Manighar is an intended runner in the Caulfield Cup before the big day, Sahara Sun and possibly Bauer. We’ve not pencilled in a prep race for Sahara Sun yet as he’s a horse we’re still learning about and Bauer’s participation as the final member of our quartet depends to a large extent on what he achieves at Haydock in the Old Borough Cup tomorrow. Drunken Sailor’s recent defeat at Goodwood can be ascribed to the soft ground, as his form relative to Harris Tweed, who he’d beaten at Ascot the time before, testifies.

Mundana looks to be progressing well and she followed up her Salisbury maiden win with another narrow success at Yarmouth. The form of that race has since been let down a couple of times, but she’s probably got some more improvement in her and though a rise of 5lb in her mark is probably as much as she deserves, she’ll have another run or two in a bid to end her career on a winning note as she won’t be around next season.

Other runners to have run well lately without getting their heads in front are Midnight Oil, Forte Dei Marmi and Kirthill. It’s unlikely that Midnight Oil would have won at Newmarket had he obtained a clear run, but he never had any room at any stage to get into his stride and finished full of running. He’ll stay at a mile and a half for now for all that a mile and three quarters will suit him well as he gets older. Kirthill was also second on the card and had little excuse other than running into one that was clearly unexposed and probably hadn’t as much weight as he probably deserved and to whom we were conceding weight. He has an entry in the Cambridgeshire but it’s unlikely that he’ll run in that race as he still looks a little inexperienced and the Cambridgeshire will be too much hustle and bustle for him. Forte Dei Marmi was slightly disappointing in that he managed only third in a conditions race at Epsom having looked as though was the assured winner at one point, but he possibly didn’t handle the cambers of the track. That was his final race for us and he’s off to Canada now to join Roger Attfield.

Also second this week were Dubai Queen and Qahriman. The former wasn’t troubled by the drop down to seven furlongs at Salisbury in a race we really had to run in because of its restriction to fillies and she ran as well as might have been anticipated, as probably did the latter who’s really crying out for a mile and three quarters but came close to adding to his Ffos Las maiden win in a handicap that might have taken a bit more winning that it looked like initially.

This weekend our main hopes at home lie with Fulgur and Spifer in the Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap at Ascot. We don’t like running two in a race in normal circumstances but our hand has been forced on this occasion. That said, we’ve done few favours with the draw as we’ve come to expect, with Fulgur particularly hard done by drawn just two from the outside. Even so, he’d still be our main hope in the expectation that Spifer ideally needs an extra two furlongs. Submission also bids to put a poor run behind her on softish ground and her chance is sure to be increased if we get a drying day. Also representing us abroad in the next couple of days are Afsare and Mohedian Lady. Afsare runs in Turkey on Monday in the Group 2 Bosphorus Cup more for the money than the prestige as it looks rather a soft race for the grade and the prize money is too good to ignore. He wears blinkers for the first time having worked well in them recently at home. Mohedian Lady is another whose choice of race has been influenced by the value of the first prize on offer. It’s a large amount of money for a fillies only race and the only worry for her is that the ground at Leopardstown doesn’t become too fast.

Posted on 03 Sep 2011 by Graeme

Weekend plans

Things have been ticking over steadily of late and Seta was one of our more high-profile runners in recent days in the Listed Upavon Stakes at Salisbury. She ran with credit to finish third in a race run in a course record time, and in that respect she couldn’t have been said not to have stayed on her first start at a mile and a quarter, but equally she couldn’t be said to have shown improved form. If anything, she emerges with a bit more credit than the result suggests as she was the only one to make significant headway from off the pace, perhaps making her ground a bit too quickly, coming there with every chance before tending to drift off a straight line inside the last. Unfortunately, there aren’t any suitable races over a mile or a mile and a quarter for her coming up, so she’ll run next back at seven furlongs in the Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster, after which she’ll run in a race abroad, though exactly where yet we’re not quite sure.

It was good to see Midnight Oil get back to winning ways at Newmarket last week after his previous flop at Ripon where he got involved in too much of a speed duel up front and seemed all at sea to boot on the undulations there. He could probably have done with a stronger pace at Newmarket, but then again was almost certainly advantaged by taking on older and exposed rivals on favourable weight-for-age terms. He’s gone up 5lb for that run, so placing him off a mark of 90 isn’t going to be easy, but he’s more improvement in him and looking longer term is the sort that will prove at least as effective, possibly even more so, at a mile and three quarters and perhaps beyond as he gains experience. He might possibly be one for something like the Northumberland Plate next year.

We have a few runners at York this week, though exactly how many will to some extent depend on the state of the ground. Perhaps our best chance of success lies with Lyric Street who runs in the Melrose on Friday. He’s taking a big step up from a mile and a quarter but the trip will suit him and if his last run at Newmarket in one of those Sales races hadn’t been for such a massive pot he’d have run at a mile and a half already, so it isn’t quite the big step up it seems. His mark is one that doesn’t look overly lenient at this stage in time, but if he finds the improvement we hope he will at the longer trip on a track that will suit his strong-galloping style ideally then he might not have to be too far ahead of it to emulate our most recent winner of the race, Speed Gifted. Manighar might be a possible for the Yorkshire Cup, but much will depend on the ground as he also has an entry at Deauville on Sunday in the Prix Kergolay in which he was second last year. The opposition at York has greater strength in depth to it with the likes of Duncan, Opinion Poll and Blue Bajan to name but Americain, his toughest opponent at Deauville and who pipped him in 2010, is probably going to be harder to beat than any of those three, so it’s a question of which is the lesser of the two evils. He’ll go wherever the ground is softest.

However those two fare, our best chance of success this weekend probably comes at Sandown where Forte Dei Marmi bids for his first win of the year and his second in succession in this race. He’s not quite come up to expectations this year but his handicap mark has come down as a consequence and there were clear signs at Goodwood last time when he finished full of running from a very poor tactical position that his turn might be near. His recent form on the gallops has been the best it has been all year and Sandown suits him very well given his hold-up style with the prospect of a strong gallop given the likely large field another factor in his favour. There’s also the possibility that Bourne will run at Chester in the Listed handicap that is effectively a consolation race for horses that didn’t make the cut for the Ebor. The distance will suit him much better than the mile and a quarter he ran over at Doncaster last time but he’s essentially a galloper and it remains to be seen whether the course will suit him as well as one with a long straight does.

Posted on 18 Aug 2011 by Graeme

Weekend reflections

Since our last update we have had a couple of winners, though it’s fair to say most of our best horses have been keeping their powder dry. The winners were Qahriman and Hunter Forward, with the former getting the first win of his career at Ffos Las and the latter following up her recent Sandown win in decent style. Qahriman almost certainly has a future over further than the mile and a half over which he broke his duck, with the step up in trip suiting him on the day as it had promised to do. Once he goes handicapping, however, he’s going to need another quarter mile to give himself a chance of really fulfilling his potential but we don’t have any plans for him just yet as wherever he goes next will be dictated by the official handicapper. Those latter comments really apply to Hunter Forward as well. We had to run her at Haydock under a 6lb penalty as he mark had rather harshly been raised 10lb despite a rather narrow winning margin at Sandown, but she proved up to the task and won fairly readily with the longer trip almost certainly in her favour. The most pleasing aspect of her performance was how much better she settled at Haydock and that encourages hopes that she’ll stay 1½m. We’re expecting the handicapper to give her a mark of 76, so she’ll have to raise her game as she’ll be forced up in grade.

It’s unlikely Bourne will get in the Ebor but the Old Borough Cup at Haydock at the start of September remains a possibility and his run at Doncaster last weekend will have kept him ticking over. We were mindful that the drop back to a mile and a quarter might catch him out, but had the race been run at a stronger gallop and he hadn’t got himself into such a poor position by breaking slowly, he’s have been thereabouts. As it was, he always just had a bit too much to do to catch horses that were quickening ahead of him on ground probably faster than he’d have preferred, so in the circumstances it wasn’t a bad run.

On the same day as Hunter Forward win at Haydock, Dysios ran an excellent race in the mile-and-a-quarter handicap. Earlier in the season it looked unlikely he’d end up settled enough to run at this trip but it looked worth a try after his previous Haydock effort and he did more than enough to suggest he’s worth persevering at it. He probably wouldn’t have beaten the winner under any circumstances, but had he not made his ground so quickly from the rear he’d have got second and we’ll probably look for a race next time on a slightly easier track.

Saturday turned out something of a disappointment with none of our runners making the frame and Naqshabban once again refusing to enter the stalls. He walks into them as calmly as you like at home but he’s become increasingly tricky out on the track and it seems our theory about him reserving his most defiant behaviour for Newmarket was wide of the mark. Never Forget didn’t show again on the track what she has been showing at home where she can match it with the likes of Seta, but there was an encouraging reappearance from Bauer who gave one of our apprentices Sean Jackson a memorable first ride. He clearly retains a good amount of ability as well as enthusiasm and there was nothing in this performance that made us think he won’t be on the plane to Australia once again later this year. Submission was a bit disappointing in the Listed race and though there’s a suggestion she might not be quite up to this grade yet (we’ll probably run her back in handicaps next time) it might also be that the easy ground was against her as she’s a good turn of foot and has shown her best form so far on a fast surface.

This week we have a few two-year-olds that we need to get out on the track, though in terms of quality the highlight will be at Salisbury where we will be running Seta in the Upavon Stakes and Field Of Dream in the Sovereign Stakes. This will be Seta’s first run at a mile and a quarter but she gives us every indication that she’ll stay it and she’ll have every chance if she does, as she’s the highest rated filly in the race on official ratings.

Posted on 07 Aug 2011 by Graeme

Goodwood reflections

Before we get on to Goodwood, a word first about Contredanse who came back to something near her best in the Lyric Stakes at York last weekend. We decided to try her in a visor as she had been working well in one at home, and she certainly ran her best race of the year if ratings are to be believed, but, against that, she was inclined to race a bit freely and that probably counted against her in the closing stages. Contredanse is one of the few horses in the yard that we don’t mind making the running with but that wasn’t really an option in first-time headgear given the possibility she might end up being too lit up, but as things turned out she was still inclined to do a bit too much in behind and she may well have enjoyed an easy lead in front had we explored that option. She’s unlikely to have the visor retained next time, when it’ll probably be a trip aboard, the race most likely for now being the Dance Design Stakes at the Curragh.

Back to Goodwood and we managed a winner on Friday with Drunken Sailor in the Glorious Stakes. If any horse has surprised us this season it has been this fellow. He wasn’t at his best for whatever reason earlier in the year at Meydan but he’s really come into his own in the last couple of months and showed here, if he hadn’t at Ascot last time in the Hardwicke, that his seven-length win at Newbury back in May in the Aston Park Stakes didn’t flatter him. For all that the race was set up for him in that Harris Tweed set a good gallop, he still had to wait for his run on account of some trouble in front of him, and he showed a smart turn of foot just when he needed to to just get up on the line. He’s developing all the right assets to do well in Australia later in the year but before then he’ll ideally have another race before he goes into quarantine in September, though exactly where that will be yet we’re not quite sure.

Goodwood week had started on a frustrating note for us when Forte Dei Marmi didn’t get the chance to show what he could do in the opening mile-and-a-quarter handicap. Trapped behind horses from the top of the straight with his wide draw clearly no help, he ended up having wait until the race was almost over before he obtained a clear run and he passed the post with plenty of running left in him. Now that he’s qualified for handicaps again, he’ll be aimed at the two valuable prizes he won last year, at Sandown and Newbury, and one would think that back on more galloping tracks where luck in running doesn’t play such a large part in the outcome as at Goodwood, he’ll be able to go very close in one if not both.

The Glorious meeting continued on a satisfactory note when Fulgur probably ran as well as he was able to under the conditions in the big three-year-old mile-and-a-quarter handicap, but he found the 9lb turnaround in the weights with Labarinto too much to overcome and he couldn’t get into his stride soon enough before finishing to decent effect. Conditions at Goodwood didn’t place as much emphasis on stamina as they did at Newmarket, with the downhill section also something of a hindrance to him, and it’s likely that his next race will be back at over a mile and a half, though he’ll be given a break first. The efforts of our other two runners at Goodwood, Manighar and Khor Sheed, are best forgotten, however, for all neither was discredited. I think Kieren would agree that Manighar was never ideally positioned in the Goodwood Cup, losing his position on the run to the top turn by which time the race had already been lost. Given that he was only beaten around four lengths in the end on ground that was faster than he would have appreciated, then he’s clearly done well all things considered and he’ll head next to Deauville for the Prix Kergolay in which he was just touched off last year. Khor Sheed wasn’t well drawn in the Oak Tree Stakes and instead of taking a pull and dropping in we decided to try and ride her a bit more prominently than usual. In the end, those tactics, given that she was inclined to run a bit freely, probably backfired but she was still in second place passing the furlong pole and fared well enough to think that she’d have gone close had things panned out differently.

One horse of ours that didn’t run at Goodwood last week but still attracted some attention was Hunter Forward. Everyone in Newmarket seemed to know that she’d been working well, which probably accounted for her starting price, though her initial handicap mark of 61 also gave her a helping hand. She’d surprisingly won a race in Australia at five furlongs but she’s clearly a middle-distance handicapper in the making so long as she curbs some residual keen-going tendencies, as would be expected of a daughter of Galileo. She’ll miss her engagement at Haydock on Thursday unless the handicapper overreacts.

Posted on 01 Aug 2011 by Graeme

Weekend and Goodwood plans

Runners are a bit thin on the ground this weekend ahead of Glorious Goodwood next week, with our main attentions this Friday centred on Contredanse in the Listed Lyric Stakes at York. She’s run twice this season, acquitting herself well up against subsequent Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud winner Sarafina in France last time and though there’s little of her calibre in this field, the prospect of properly soft ground if there’s been some rain in Yorkshire is a worrying one, not least given her biggest rival on form Sajjhaa is proven under testing conditions. Contredanse has been working well in a visor at home and so we’re trying her with one in the race in a bid to land her first win since the Oaks d’Italia last year.

Initially, we’d intended running Forte Dei Marmi at York as well in the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes but with the ground a major worry on his behalf we’re switching him to Goodwood next week for the big mile-and-a-quarter handicap where hopefully the ground won’t be overwatered or any worse than good and he’ll most likely get a more-strongly run race than he would do at York. That leaves us with two runners on Saturday, both two-year-olds first time out, but we’re not giving any secrets away when we say that both Goldream at Newmarket in a race in which Burano sets a tall standard and Out Do at York will both be better prospects once they’ve had their initial run.

On Sunday we have one of rare runners at Carlisle these days when Butler goes for a lady riders handicap in an attempt to provide Francesca with another winner. He’ll be running off a career-high mark and we wouldn’t want the ground to get too soft, but against that he’s still unexposed at the trip with this being his only his second run at it, he should be ideally suited by the run of the race if it’s as well run as most lady riders events are and on top of that the stiff uphill finish promises to be in his favour as well. We also have Field Of Dream engaged in the Listed Pomfret Stakes at Pontefract but he’s not an intended runner unless Roger Charlton decides not to take advantage of what looks a straightforward opportunity for Cityscape.

Looking ahead to next week, plans for Goodwood are just taking shape but its unlikely Fulgur will be joining Forte Dei Marmi on the opening day, as the Gordon Stakes looks too warm. He’ll hopefully be up to Group level later in the season, but for now the mile-and-a-quarter handicap on Thursday looks the more winnable option. Submission heads to Goodwood on Wednesday for the fillies handicap over a mile and one furlong, while on Thursday Manighar drops back to two miles for the Goodwood Cup and should go well. Friday sees Drunken Sailor and Khor Sheed run in the Glorious Stakes and the Oak Tree Stakes respectively, while Kazbow ends proceedings in the mile-and three-quarter handicap on Saturday. Readers might be surprised to see one of our most progressive three-year-olds Lyric Street missing from that list but he’s a long-striding horse who’s unlikely to find Goodwood to his liking and he’ll be kept back for York where the Melrose might well be his target.

A familiar name that has recently come back into work at Bedford House is Bauer. The old boy is starting to show what he is capable of again, but, as it was last year when things didn’t quite work out, Melbourne is the ain for him again and any race he has here can only be a preparation for Australia as he has to go into quarantine in September. He holds an entry in the Ebor and might well run in that race, but it could well be his first of the season and anyone thinking of backing him at the 20-1 currently available will do well to review his run at Salisbury first time out last season back from a long break!

Posted on 21 Jul 2011 by Graeme

Newmarket July meeting reflections

The last couple of weekends have proved rather frustrating but in between we’ve had a couple of wins from horses that promise to go on to better things in the near future, more of whom later. Back to last weekend first, though, and though Bourne ran very well in the Old Newton Cup he wasn’t quite able to match the turn of speed shown by Halicarnassus. Considering the race was a very slowly run one, however, that’s hardly surprising given that the winner was up until recently a regular Group performer at a mile and a quarter, so to get so close under an excellent ride from Kirsty who gave him every chance was a very good effort. He’s inched up in the handicap as a consequence but there’s every likelihood his new rating isn’t sufficient yet to guarantee him a place in the Ebor, so he’ll have another run before then to try and secure that aim, hopefully on King George day over the Old Newton Cup trip.

At Sandown Dubai Queen came up a little disappointing on the face of things but there was an excuse as she swallowed her tongue, which was the reason she stopped so quickly. She’s had a busy first half of the Flat season, so she’ll have a break now.

Fulgur and Submission lightened the mood this week with their wins at Newmarket and Doncaster respectively. Fulgur had looked a very well handicapped horse to us ahead of race as though the handicapper had edged him up 2lb for that Ascot effort, for most of the way there was little between him and the Group horses that dominated the finish. That said, we weren’t sure we would definitely beat the second Mijhaar, but it’s likely that Fulgur will remain fairly treated even after the rise in the weights that awaits him and there are handicap options at Goodwood over either 1¼m or 1½m before he makes the step back up to Listed or Pattern races. Submission will probably be up at that level herself by the end of the season but before then she’s likely to have another chance to win a handicap at Doncaster so long as he new rating doesn’t rise above 90. She won very well there last week showing an excellent turn of foot and though she will eventually be stepped up to 1¼m, she’s still plenty of mileage in her handicap mark right now to enable her to more than hold her own at 1m.

We ran our first two-year-old of the year at Newmarket in the week, Strada Facendo, and he ran well enough to be hopeful about the prospects for the rest of the youngsters we have at home. Had he been a bit more forcefully ridden he might have finished third but a Newmarket maiden win isn’t the be all and end all with his best days ahead of him and he shouldn’t have any problem picking up a similar event with a happy initial experience behind him. The rest of the meeting provided mixed results with Afsare clearly finding the overwatered ground too soft in the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes and Spifer throwing away a race he really should have won and would have won had he been given a couple of left handers just when he started to edge to his left inside the last. He’ll go up in the weights for that, which is frustrating, but there’s more to come from him and he looks a likely runner at this point in time for the Melrose at York, though we also have another possible for that race in Midnight Oil about whose prospects we might well know more after he’s run in the Ripon Bell Ringer next weekend.

If Spifer’s defeat was tough one to take, at least Saturday ended with some satisfying news with two former Bedford House inmates performed with credit at the top level in the United States, Cheetah winning the Grade 3 Robert G. Dick Memorial Stakes at Delaware Park and Fantasia finishing second in the Grade 1 Foxwoods Just A Game Stakes at Belmont Park.

Posted on 11 Jul 2011 by Graeme

Latest reflections

First things first, we’re sad to see Alkimos head off to Godolphin. He’s progressed well for us, looks to have more improvement in him and we wish him well in his new surroundings.

Last Saturday at Newmarket didn’t provide us with any winners but most of our runners, at that least those that went into the stalls, ran with credit, headed by Afsare who finished second behind Jukebox Jury in the Listed Fred Archer Stakes trying 1½m for the first time. In hindsight, Afsare probably ended up making his effort from too far back as the race was run, with the winner was able to dictate a very steady pace and then getting first run to the tune of several lengths when kicking on with around 3f to run. Given that there was so little between the first two at the line, Afsare has to be considered unlucky, but the fact that he ended up splitting two horses that have good form in Group company means that it’s likely he isn’t far away from winning a Group 3 or perhaps something better himself. We’ll have a look at the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket next week, but that race might just come too soon.

Nothing went right for Field Of Dream in first-time blinkers in the Criterion Stakes and his effort is best ignored, but both Lyric Street and Wallis ran career bests and look to have more to offer. Lyric Street, in particular, looks a horse to keep onside as he’s crying out for an extra 2f and he only ran because the huge prize made the gamble one worth taking despite the amount he had to find on official ratings. The manner in which he was staying on strongly at the end of what was a truly-run race suggests he’s got a good handicap in him off his new mark of 97 and we’ll target either of the big 3yo handicaps over 1½m at either Glorious Goodwood or the York Ebor meeting. Wallis, too, ran well, just unfortunate in that she came up against two well-handicapped fillies a bit more progressive. She’s been edged up to 87 for that and though she’s got an entry in the Listed Pipalong Stakes at Pontefract on Tuesday, she’s unlikely to run given it looks a warm heat.

Thursday this week was a good day as we recorded 3 winners, Franciscan and Media Hype at Yarmouth and Mistoffelees in a charity race at Newbury. Mistoffelees is off to the Sales next week at Tattersalls, so it was a timely return to form for him ridden by Francesca. The other two are staying with us, and Media Hype in particular looks one who can win again as his narrow win over Miss Whippy was achieved despite allowing that one a massive advantage in a slowly-run race and he won with more in hand than the winning margin suggests. Being by Tiger Hill, we knew he’d appreciate the step up in trip and he could make into a fair handicapper come the end of the season. Franciscan recorded his second win of the year and the first at 1¼m and we’re hopeful that this time he’ll go forward faster than he did after winning at Haydock now he’s matured more.

This Saturday our hopes of a Listed win lie with Dubai Queen who faces 5 rivals in the Coral Distaff at Sandown. Chief among them seems to be Roger Varian’s Nahrain who was so impressive in winning a maiden at Haydock last time but Dubai Queen doesn’t have too much to find with the highest rated horses on official ratings and probably wouldn’t mind it developing into a test of speed given the pace she’s shown so far. She’s a good chance of running into a place, as, hopefully, has Bourne in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. His latest poor run at Epsom is probably best put down to the tricky track and he’s always promised to be a better horse at this trip, but there’s little doubting that this is by far the toughest task he’s faced so far and he’s going to need a career best. Start Right also runs this weekend in the Coral Challenge but, as has been the story of his life so far, he’s been handed another nightmare draw. So once again with him, its fingers crossed, no more, for that elusive big handicap win.

Posted on 02 Jul 2011 by Graeme

Royal Ascot review

Royal Ascot week turned out to be something of a disappointing one for us in that we didn’t manage to bag a winner, but the majority of the horses ran well and we reached the frame on several occasions so overall can’t be too disheartened given the level of competition we were up against. Seta got the meeting for us off to a slightly underwhelming start but there are excuses given that she seemed to be ridden too prominently in a race in which the early pace seemed to take its toll on those at the head of affairs. We certainly haven’t lost faith her and she’ll aim to get back to winning ways in the Kilboy Stakes at the Curragh next month over a mile and a furlong. Start Right ran respectably in the Royal Hunt Cup without once again getting the best of the luck with the draw, but things got better as the day went on and Dubai Queen came close to winning the Sandringham Handicap that closed the card. Indeed, so strong was she travelling in the penultimate furlong that she looked the most likely winner, but there weren’t any excuses on the day other than being beaten by a better horse at the weights. Dubai Queen has gone up to a rating of 95 after that and that almost certainly means she’ll have her next run in a Listed contest, with the likelihood too that she’ll be kept to a mile for now.

Manighar ran a grand race in the Gold Cup and it seemed very strange that the official handicappers have dropped him 2lb to a rating of 112 after that, not that it matters too much as he won’t be running in handicaps anyway. In view of the fact he was trying the trip for the first time, he might just have finished third instead of fourth had he not made his ground on the outside so quickly approaching the home turn. It’s a moot point whether he stayed or not as the Gold Cup is a one off and he’ll be dropped back to 2m next time wherever there is any give in the ground. Alkimos finished a very good second in the Tercentenary Stakes, though in hindsight he too might have been brought with his run too early though whether he’d have beaten Pisco Sour had it been delayed longer is unlikely. Alkimos has only been raised to 104 after that run, perhaps surprisingly, so he won’t be as well in in the John Smiths Cup at York which has already closed as we first imagined but given that Wigmore Hall managed to win that race last year off a mark of 101 then we’re going to give it very close consideration. His alternative option is the Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton. Danadana couldn’t maintain our run of placed efforts on Gold Cup day but he had a legitimate excuse in that he was badly bumped on the final turn which sent him spinning and it looked anyway as if the trip was too far on the day, so he’ll be dropped back to a mile and a quarter next time, possibly in the handicap for 3yo’s at the July meeting.

Our two remaining runners at Ascot acquitted themselves very well, Fulgur finishing fifth in the King Edward VII Stakes and Drunken Sailor finishing third in the Hardwicke and so justifying the decision to supplement him. For a long way Fulgur looked likely to finish closer than he did, so considering he was taking a massive step in grade we feel fortunate to have got away with only a small rise in his official rating to 89. He’ll go back to handicaps now and though we don’t have any particular race in mind there are several potentially nice prizes coming up we can aim him at. If there’s one thing above all else he needs it’s a strongly-run race and the demands of a big-field handicap would suit him ideally. Drunken Sailor’s Hardwicke effort confirms what wasn’t entirely clear after the Aston Park Stakes, that he is indeed a much-improved horse this season, so it was somewat surprising too to see his official rating downgraded to 114. The Princess Of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket might just come too soon for him but looking longer term he’s the sort that might well end up back in Australia at the end of the year.

Other that that, we have been firing in the maiden winners in recent days with Kirthill, Mundana and Midnight Oil all eligible now to go handicapping. Kirthill didn’t beat a great deal at Newmarket and so we were surprised to see him given an official rating of 85, but it might be that he’s been handicapped on what he finished around at Doncaster last year. He looked for all the world at Newmarket like a horse that’s crying out for a mile and a quarter, so he’s almost certainly got some improvement in him, as has Midnight Oil who probably didn’t much at Leicester but could hardly have done it more easily and, as Aidan O’Brien might say, is a definite possibility for the Melrose at York (Spifer might also be a potential runner in that race). Mundana is a promising filly who shouldn’t get a mark higher than 80 if our expectations are correct. She won at Salisbury with something in hand despite unsuitable soft ground and she’ll almost certainly wants stepping up to a mile once she goes handicapping.

Khor Sheed is another of ours to have been in the winners enclosure lately, though the opposition in the Eternal Stakes at Warwick on Thursday wasn’t strong with only Richard Hannon’s Eucharist rated as highly as Khor Sheed and arguably not in the same form. The emphasis on speed at what is a fast track anyway suited her down to the ground and she won in some style. She’ll probably get a mile, but the Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood at seven furlongs again might be her next port of call. It was good to see Kazbow back to winning ways to at Doncaster on Friday. He was able to dictate matters in a way he couldn’t at York on his previous run and his win seemed to confirm that a mile and three quarters is probably as far as he wants to go.

Posted on 25 Jun 2011 by Graeme

Royal Ascot plans

Royal Ascot is nearly upon us and we go there this year with our biggest team for several years. We don’t have any runners on Tuesday as we haven’t even run a two-year-old yet and don’t have any top-class milers among the colts, but our focus will certainly be on the straight mile track on Wednesday when Seta runs in the Windsor Forest, Start Right runs in the Royal Hunt Cup and Dubai Queen runs in the Sandringham. On official ratings, Music Show appears to be the one to beat in the Windsor Forest but she’s not been in the same form this year that she was last and to our eyes the biggest threats promise to be Sajjhaa who is dropping back in trip after finishing second to Midday in the Middleton at York on her comeback, last year’s Coronation Stakes third Jacqueline Quest and the progressive Dahlia Stakes winner I’m A Dreamer. Setas’s Goodwood form looks a little bit muddling and she’ll clearly have to put up a career best to win, possibly to the tune of 7lb or so, but she’s been doing well at home and her recent home work has been impressive. Start Right will have many more rivals to overcome than Seta, and a potentially bigger hurdle too in the shape of the draw which promises to be much more important than it will be in the Windsor Forest with different going stick readings already in evidence across the track before the meeting has even begun. Without knowing the draw or second guessing where any bias might or might not be, all we can do is cross our fingers but it’s fair to say Start Right deserves a change of luck on that score. Not only did he do well to finish third at Epsom last time from a bad draw, but he wasn’t quite rated highly enough in Meydan to get into more than one race there, and the one time he did he flashed home from the outside stall. The ground was too soft for him in the Cambridgeshire and he was also unlucky with the draw at the Curragh last year too after winning at Goodwood, so it’s about time he had a change of fortune. We suspect he’s well handicapped. Dubai Queen has been progressing nicely and her form looks good with several of those that finished behind her at Goodwood coming out and winning next time out and her second at Newmarket coming in a warm handicap in which many of those she was up against had also won last time out. For all this is a step up in grade, it probably hasn’t the same number of unexposed fillies her last race had and she promises to go very well.

On Thursday, we run Manighar in the Gold Cup, Alkimos in the Tercentenary and Danadana in the King George V Handicap. It’s very difficult to tell how Manighar will fare trying 2½m for the first time as the acid test only comes in the race itself and as we found out with Purple Moon the last couple of furlongs are always liable to catch out the dubious stayers out after the long pull uphill from Swinley Bottom. That said, Yorkshire Cup winner Duncan is in the same boat if he goes for that race rather than the Hardwicke and the opposition, him aside, looks to be a little bit light. Good to soft ground would be Manighar’s preferred ground, though that would also play to the strengths of Opinion Poll too and would also place more emphasis on stamina. Alkimos has had his official rating raised to 103 after winning the same race at Doncaster that Afsare won last year before winning the Hampton Court (as it was then) and that’s enough for us to think he won’t be out of place for all he’ll need to improve another 10lb or so to emulate his stable-companion. He’s a big, strong horse who’s very much the type to improve further, though it might be he’ll have too considerably if his Doncaster form turns out to be misleading as well it might be with the favourite well below form. Still, the visual impression he created was a good one and we thought him good enough a while ago to enter him in the King Edward VII on Friday. Danadana will have no trouble staying 1½m in his race and might even improve for it but he’s going to be up against any number of unexposed types also trying the trip for the first time and in a big field on the round course luck in running and the draw will be important too.

Friday sees Fulgur run in the King Edward VII and Forte Dei Marmi the Wolferton. There’s no bizarre logic running a horse rated 87 in a Group 2 other than Fulgur will be very well suited by the step up to 1½m and he probably has greater scope for improvement at that trip than Danadana. Things didn’t go his way at Newbury last time but he was a horse that finally clicked after three runs last year and hopefully it looks as if it’s going to be the same story again this time round. Forte Dei Marmi also hasn’t had things go his way this year and is much better than his form figures make him look. He’s a decent chance if he produces what we know he is capable of, even if the bare facts of him being 8lb higher than his last handicap win gained by just a neck at Newbury last autumn, suggest something different.

Afsare and Drunken Sailor running in the Hardwicke on Saturday complete Ascot week. Let’s hope by then the ground is still on the fast side as ground as soft as Afsare encountered at Sandown last time would scupper his chances straight away, which would be very frustrating as we’ve believed for a while that he will be well suited by the step up in trip. Await The Dawn is going to be very tough to beat, but at least we have a second role of the dice with Drunken Sailor being supplemented too. Whether he’s up to this level or whether his last Newbury race was one that fell apart in front of him is something we’re still not quite sure about, but on the balance of form Afasre would probably have the better chance.

Posted on 13 Jun 2011 by Graeme

Presvis undone by slow pace in Singapore

Sunday in Singapore didn’t quite go to plan so far as Presvis was concerned as the anticipated lack of early pace unfortunately manifested itself in a big way and he found himself racing far too keenly, much more so than usual, and the race was over as far even before Richard Hughes elected to switch wide and try and make his ground widest of all in fastest part of the race. Ahead of the race, Presvis had a forthcoming option in Japan in a bid to try secure a bonus for winning the Asian Mile series but pursuing that option looks much too complicated with visas and the like and the likelihood too that he’d have to be partnered by a Japanese jockey. As a result, he’ll be given a holiday now and brought back in Dubai next year when his programme, which almost picks itself, will pretty much follow the same pattern as it has for the last two seasons.

The following day Contredanse ran in the Prix Corrida at Saint-Cloud and acquitted herself well to finish fourth in a race she really had little chance of winning. Considering she’s been slow to come to herself this year, it was probably a little bit early in the year to be taking on the likes of Sarafina and Lily Of The Valley but there aren’t many options open to her and though we were perhaps slightly disappointed that she didn’t get third with Lily Of The Valley well below her best, the race should tighten her up and hopefully we’ll see her at her best next time, although we don’t have particular plans in place just yet.

Last weekend back here our main hope of success appeared to be Forte Dei Marmi at Goodwood but he never really had the run of the race, shuffled back to the rear early on and then rather bullied out of things in the straight when he didn’t get a clear run when travelling well. This run is best forgotten and we’ll look for a similar contest or perhaps a crack at a Group 3 somewhere next time.

Tomorrow we have Afsare running in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown. The race looked an ideal target several weeks ago when Workforce seemed likely to be making his reappearance in the Tattersalls Gold Cup but now he has been rerouted and Jan Vermeer and Elusive Pimpernel are also among the opposition this race has a very tough look to it from our point of view. Ideally we’d rather not be taking on Workforce whether he needs the race or not, but there’s very little else for Afsare ahead of Ascot. He’s a lot fitter and sharper than he was when making his reappearance but in all reality third place looks the best we are playing for.

We look to have some chances this weekend, headed perhaps by Danadana at Newmarket on Friday. He’s come out of his Newcastle win well, but there looks to be two potentially two well-treated rivals in Audacious and Flag Officer up against him and if anything this race is probably a stepping stone as far as we are concerned on the way to better things at a mile and a half. Given luck in running, therefore, it all depends on how well handicapped he is. Naqshabban runs at Newmarket on Saturday in the Listed Fairways Stakes bidding to retain his unbeaten record and will probably need to find around 10lb improvement if the best of the opposition turn up, but if he’s to have reasonable prospects of winning what used to be known at the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, then he’ll realistically need to finish in the first two. Dubai Queen is also engaged at Newmarket and goes there in a bid to get her rating raised enough to run in the Sandringham Handicap also at the Royal meeting. That’s quite a tough task given that fillies rated up to 110 are eligible for that race, but Dubai Queen held an entry in the Coronation Stakes until fairly recently and she won her Goodwood maiden with something to spare. Never Forget is a filly we have been sent from France and she makes her first appearance for us in the Listed Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock. She won the Group 2 Prix de Malleret at Saint-Cloud last year but we’re still learning with her and we’ll see how she goes before making any future plans. And looking ahead to the start of next week, Bourne runs in the Zetland Gold Cup so long as the ground isn’t too fast; if it is, he’ll sidestep that race and go for a handicap over a mile and a half at Epsom a few days later.

Posted on 26 May 2011 by Graeme