Mabait heads to Turkey

Things have been on the quiet side in the last week or so but in that period we have managed to reach 50 winners for the season and began it by landing two good prizes at Goodwood last Sunday courtesy of Axiom in the opening 0-105 handicap and Drunken Sailor in the Listed March Stakes. Axiom needs a good strong pace, seven furlongs and some give in the ground and that’s exactly the combination he has had at Goodwood on the last two occasions he has been there. He’s edged back up in the weights again as a result and will head next for the totesport.com Heritage Handicap at Ascot later this month in a bid to go one better than he did last year. In contrast to Axiom’s win, Drunken Sailor’s was gained despite events conspiring against him. He ideally prefers a stronger pace and faster ground so to come from last to first in a steadily-run race was a good effort. Both wins reflected great credit on Kieren Fallon, particularly the ride on Drunken Sailor, and it’s fair comment that he is probably riding better now than he has at any point this season.

We also had a rare runner at the Curragh last weekend when Start Right ran in the Irish Cambridgeshire. Fourth place in such a big field is a fair result on the face of things, but the bare facts don’t tell the true story as he was poorly drawn towards the outside and spent most of the first half of the contest wider than ideal and well away from the pace which was ahead of him on the inside rail. Considering his position three furlongs out, fourth place was no mean feat after snaking a path through runners and had he been drawn more towards the inside there’s every chance he would have run out the winner. It’s not easy juggling his options from now on as we also have Axiom, Swop and Acrostic in the mix for the same options, but for now it seems likely that Acrostic will probably join Axiom at Ascot while Start Right will probably head for the Cambridgeshire proper.

This weekend we have a couple of interesting chances with Man Of Iron in the totesport.com September Stakes at Kempton and Mabait in the Topkapi Trophy at Veliefendi in Istanbul. Man Of Iron has not been easy to predict in our time with us and needs to bounce back from a modest run last time in the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes, but we are hoping the return to Polytrack will show him in a much better light and whereas we know he is at his best on an artificial surface, the same can’t be said of any of his rivals with the exception of Buxted who probably isn’t good enough anyway.

Over in Turkey, the Topkapi Trophy might be a Group 2 in name but the standard of the opposition looks more akin to a Group 3 race if the truth be told. That said, it’s still going to be a tough task for Mabait to get the better of Pressing, who has already taken the scalp of one of our runners, Summit Surge, in a Group 2 abroad this year, and throw Dream Eater and Invisible Man into the mix as well then it’s quite clear that Mabiat will have to return a career best if he is going to win. Considering the vast prize money on offer, it’s perhaps a surprise that the foreign challenge isn’t even stronger but so long as we get a good gallop – hopefully of the locals will make the running – and his draw towards the outside doesn’t turn out to be an inconvenience, he ought to be thereabouts at the finish.

Posted on 03 Sep 2010 by Graeme

Seta and other reflections from last weekend

We had a very busy time of things last weekend and are pleased to say quite a successful time too with two high-profile winners at Sandown, two solid placed efforts in well-contested Group races at Deauville and a good effort from Summit Surge in the Arlington Million despite overnight rain turning conditions against him.

Seta extended her winning sequence in the Atalanta Stakes that opened Saturday’s Sandown card and turned in a career-best performance conceding 4lb to the 2009 Sweet Solera winner Long Lashes but she didn’t pull away quite as we might have hoped and with Flora Trevelyan not beaten far in third, for all that she was defending an unbeaten record at Sandown, the form probably falls a bit short of what would be needed to run into a place in the Sun Chariot Stakes, which has been her autumn objective all along. That said, the manner in which she won at Sandown also brings the Listed John Musker at Yarmouth over a mile and a quarter into the picture as a possible autumn alternative.

Forte Dei Marmi is probably due a fall next time judged on his form figures since reappearing in 2009 but it’s significant in our eyes that two of his lesser performances this year have come at York where the surface is inclined to get a bit loose on top and the official going descriptions, or those reported by the riders in general, don’t tally with the opinions provided by our own version of the ‘going stick’ which has served us well for many years. Back away from York, Forte Dei Marmi returned to winning ways with his best performance and from a handicapping perspective probably deserved the small rise in the weights that he has been given as a result. With Australia Day and Opera Gal taking each other on in front, he got the strong pace that suits him ideally and the manner in which he finished his race, going away at the finish, put to bed any doubts that he is a doubtful stayer at a mile and a quarter. His next objective, as it was probably always going to be anyway, is the Dubai Duty Free Heritage Handicap at Newbury, where he won earlier in the season, but any plans beyond that will have to wait until we see how he runs and how the handicapper responds. If he runs at Newbury, he won’t run in the Cambridgeshire – we tried that route with Monte Alto and he wasn’t the same horse afterwards.

Over in France, Contredanse came very close to winning another Group race this year when beaten a head in the Prix de la Nonette. Kieren blamed himself for setting too slow a pace, but he’s probably being a bit harsh on himself as the pace he set effectively put two of his rivals out of the race straight away and the likelihood is that a slightly more progressive rival with a good turn of foot was just too good for her. Picking the bones of the form apart, she looks to have just about reproduced her best previous form and the same again ought to see her pick up another Group race somewhere along the line.

Manighar ran a better race than he had at Goodwood last time and seemed to appreciate the return to an easier surface than he has encountered in the races we have run him in over here. Mindful of his finishing effort at Goodwood on his previous start, the idea was to drop him out and bring him with a late run but he perhaps got a little too far back given that the straight at Deauville is barely two furlongs long and once he had to switch for a run he always found the winner had first run on him. Still this was an encouraging return to form, and he can now be trained for the Melbourne Cup. The plan is now to put him into quarantine on September 8^th prior to flying out to Australia on the 23^rd. He will most likely take in the Caulfield Cup first.

As we mentioned earlier, Summit Surge was defeated by the elements in Chicago last weekend and that enabled Debussy to turn around the form of the Sky Bet York Stakes a month previously. The weather had been fine almost leading up to the morning of the race but 18mm of rain then had quite an effect on the going and his chance seeped away with every drop. Looking at the result, he’s not run too far below form and we can count ourselves unlucky. The ground will dictate where he goes next.

We are back on our travels again this weekend, though only to Ireland where Start Right runs in the Irish Cambridgeshire on Sunday. There has not been much rain in Dublin by all accounts and that promises to be in his favour, but there is likely to be a maximum field and how the Irish handicap form stacks up against handicap form over here at the level just shy of Listed class we’ll probably discover on Sunday.

Conditions at Goodwood could hardly be any different and so long as the meeting on Saturday gets the all clear, Axiom and Drunken Sailor should both go well in their respective races. Axiom is finally being given a chance by the handicapper and shaped with more encouragement last time out while Drunken Sailor very much looks the one to beat in the March Stakes when stamina will not be an issue. How he copes with what promises to be very soft ground is hard to know – he hasn’t run on anything like that for us and though he won his race in Ireland before joining us on yielding ground, his efforts on softer than that over there don’t read quite so well.

Finally, Gold Rules heads to Beverley where he contests a valuable handicap sponsored by totesport.com. We have gone close in this in previous years but this year’s renewal perhaps isn’t as strong as some with the top weight officially rated just 95and most of the field rated 90 or less. Gold Rules has been gelded since he last ran and comes here after a break, but he’s fit enough to do himself justice and he’s been handed a good draw in stall 14.

Posted on 26 Aug 2010 by Graeme

Summit Surge and Seta lead weekend charge

The past eight days or so have provided us with several winners, with perhaps the highlight in that time being Aktia’s win at Salisbury when stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time. She has progressed very well this year from humble beginnings and though she won only

Aktia

narrowly, had she been able to get out sooner she would have probably have won with by further than she did eventually. She had quite a hard race, so she will have a small rest now, and though we don’t have any immediate plans for her she will stay at this trip for now. Looking further ahead, though she could well develop into a Listed class filly at a mile and a half or even further next year.

Acrostic was unlucky again yesterday at York in the Addleshaw Goddard to come up against a progressive three-year-old in Ransom Note. Oddly enough, he bounced back in the same race at York last year after a slightly substandard effort at Goodwood with what was a career best effort at the time, and history looks to have repeated itself this year as he went one place better and off a 4lb higher mark to boot. The upshot of all this, of course, is that his mark will probably go up now to 106 which means there will be very few races open to him outside of handicaps, other than conditions races, for which the prize money is usually very poor for the standard of horse involved, or Listed/Group events, for which we have never really considered him quite good enough. It’s certainly a major and very frustrating shortcoming of the programme here that there are very few suitable opportunities for a horse rated between 105 and 110 yet if we had a stable full of horses rated between 55 and 65 there would be plentiful opportunities for all of them all year round.

This weekend we unleash several of our big guns home and abroad with pride of place among the home runners going to Seta who runs in the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown. She is in excellent form having bypassed the Dick Hern at Bath last week on account of the ground, but she has a bad draw on the wide outside and her task is complicated by the fact that she is facing her toughest opposition since the Guineas back in the spring. Long Lashes may well give her most to do with the Godolphin filly having looked in need of the race back from a long break when just behind our runner Field Of Dream in a Listed race at Goodwood on her comeback, though Micheal Jarvis’ improving handicapper Decorative and Henry Cecil’s Chachamaidee who was second in the Valiant at Ascot last time probably shouldn’t be underestimated either.

We also have Forte Dei Marmi running at Sandown tomorrow but we go there hopeful more than anything else mindful that this race will tell us once and for all whether a mile and a quarter is his trip or whether he needs to come back to a mile; the Cambridgeshire remains a possibility so long as he puts on an encouraging show.

Manighar

Our main flagbearer abroad this weekend is Summit Surge in the Arlington Million at Chicago. We’re under no illusions about the task we face with Gio Ponti in the field and our task is made more demanding by an outside draw that means that we will need everything to fall into place to even make the frame. That also means a good strong gallop right from the off to negate the draw, which might well be possible with Debussy and Tazeez in the field, as well as the Clerk of the Course laying off the water as Summit Surge can’t have the ground fast enough.

We are also have Manighar and Contredanse running at Deauville on Sunday. Manighar goes in the Prix Kergolay and we are hoping the return to soft ground on a track that he has won on before will allow him to rediscover his best form. He looks to have the best credentials in the field if he is at his best but he faces tough opposition from the recent Group 2 Prix Maurice de Nieuil winner Blek above all else. Earlier in the day Contredanse looks to have every chance in the Prix de la Nonette over a mile and a quarter. She’s done well since the Nassau but while the ground is ideal for Manighar she could do with it firming up a bit. The Jean-Claude Rouget pair of Lily Of The Valley and Zagora will take some beating as will the recent Prix de Malleret winner Never Forget, so despite the small field there is plenty of quality up against her.

Posted on 20 Aug 2010 by Graeme

news update

Things have been a bit quiet in what is generally a low-key period anyway between Goodwood and York but the high hopes that we had for Khor Sheed in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket last weekend were rather dashed by the rain that arrived the night before racing. That is the slant we are putting on things for now, anyway, though we are also under no illusions that she was beaten in all likelihood by two better fillies with the winner in particular looking a very good prospect. We’ll keep her at seven furlongs for now, and try to ensure next time that she races on fast ground. The Prestige Stakes at Goodwood at the end of August is a possible option, and it’s highly unlikely that she’ll have more than another two races this season.

On the same day Day Of The Eagle showed his frustrating side once again in seven-furlong handicap. He shows plenty of speed at home but isn’t displaying it on the track at the minute after a promising start to the season and has become increasingly slow to find his stride, a characteristic that began at Doncaster and was more pronounced than ever last Saturday. There’s most likely still another decent handicap in him, but we need to try something different to get some more out of him and he’ll probably have a visor on next time when he will step back up to a mile. We don’t have any particular target in mind just yet.

This weekend we are looking forward to running Seta in the Listed Dick Hern Fillies’ Stakes at Bath. We have been keeping a close eye on the weather as very firm ground wouldn’t be ideal and would result in us rerouting to the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown next week, but a substantial amount of rain fell on the track on Tuesday and so long as the ground doesn’t firm up again she will take her chance (she will be declared with a rain advisory). She has the highest official rating of any of the runners and it looks a race well within her capabilities on the road, hopefully, to the Sun Chariot at Newmarket at the end of the year.

We usually like to go the Ebor at York with a leading fancy but unfortunately we won’t have a runner in the big handicap this year. That leaves us looking a bit light over the four days, but at the time of writing we will be running (among our better horses at least) Field Of Dream in the Strensall Stakes, Acrostic in the Addleshaw Goddard Handicap and Purple Moon in the Lonsdale. Becqu Adoree is also a possible for one of two races, the most difficult being the Galtres Stakes, but she also has the option of the Listed Alice Keppel Handicap at Goodwood at the end of August. That Goodwood race was also an option for Contredanse but we will be taking her instead to Deauville on Sunday week (22^nd) for the Prix de la Nonette in which she escapes a penalty. As well as Contredanse we will also be heading abroad this month with Summit Surge, who departs on Monday for Arlington, where it looks as if we will be playing for second place at best with Gio Ponti in the Million field, and probably Manighar, who has a likely engagement in the Prix Kergorlay at Deauville. He’s proved a bit disappointing since his debut for us at Goodwood, but it may well be that he needs softer ground than he’s had so far over here and he should get that at Deauville. We will also be heading to Ireland at the end of the month with Start Right who has gone up to 94 after his win at Goodwood. Rather than try and win a few thousand over here with him we feel he’s better off chancing his arm for much more money in the Irish Cambridgeshire at the Curragh and our investigations show that he would be very unfortunate not to make the cut. Mabait is another that will also soon be off on his travels - he has the Topkapi Trophy at Istanbul as his target, where he will race for a purse that puts prize money over here to shame.

We hope to give some indication of our two-year-old over the coming weeks, but as yet most of them haven’t done too much in the way of serious work; that said, some of the better ones will probably start coming out once Ebor week has ended.

Posted on 11 Aug 2010 by Graeme

Goodwood week reflections

This has been a curate’s egg of a week with the good parts coming at the start and a couple of disappointing runs to come to terms with in the second half. Certainly last weekend was a good one, with Summit Surge winning the Group 2 Sky Bet Stakes at York and Mabait continuing the good work by winning the Listed Pomfret Stakes (also sponsored by Sky Bet) at Pontefract.

Summit Surge deserved his first win for well over a year having shown he was up to this grade when second to Pressing in a Group 2 at San Siro at the end of May. That was a particularly good effort as we have thought for a while now that a mile in top company is on the sharp side

Start Right - Goodwood winner

for him and we have been waiting to try him over a mile and a quarter. He was given a beautifully judged ride by Kieren Fallon who brought him with a steady run to lead in the last eighty yards or so and he was going away at the end in the manner of one that might get a bit further. He’s unlikely to be an easy horse to place here from now on as there are very few suitable races over this trip - he’s probably not up to winning at Group 1 level – and his reliance on very fast ground to show his form means that taking him abroad, certainly once we get into the autumn, isn’t going to be an option in Europe. The Arlington Million is under consideration as the European Challenge doesn’t promise to be very strong at this point and the American challenge might not be either, with Gio Ponti looking more likely at this point to head for the Pacific Classic. If Summit Surge looks like he might finish in the first three, the trip promises to be worthwhile.

Mabait continues to improve and he was a shade unlucky not to have won the Pomfret Stakes outright. In handicaps he has always been best in a strongly-run race with little between his best form at a mile and seven furlongs and now that he has taken the step into Listed/Group company we have quickly been made aware how subtle differences in the pace at which those races tend to be run have made it hard to show the form we still believe he is capable of. Ignoring his run behind Premio Loco at Newmarket, where he ran flat, neither the Diomed at Epsom nor the Pomfret has dropped ideally for him with the stop-start pace at Pontefract leading to something of a sprint finish. The stiff uphill climb from the 2f marker offset that to a degree, but to try and give Rio De La Plata two lengths start in a steadily run race is a tall order and that he very nearly managed to win the race outright is testimony to his good current form. The Group 3 Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury in August is a possibility, but more likely is a trip to Turkey for the Topkapi Trophy, a race that Pressing won last year and one that is extremely valuable considering the usual standard of the opposition.

Start Right got Glorious Goodwood off to a good start when winning the mile handicap on the opening day. To be honest, it was a bit of a soft race once he was drawn high with so many exposed older horses in the line up and the only problem as usual at Goodwood was finding a way through bunching horses in the last quarter mile Fortunately that didn’t prove a problem and now that he has really discovered his form, and we have determined his correct trip – he has always shown us plenty of speed at home- we can keep him at mile and perhaps look to running him at York’s Ebor meeting in the Addleshaw Goddard.. So strongly did he travel on his first run at Goodwood this year, however, that it might also be that he will be effective dropped to seven furlongs, so something like the big Heritage Handicap at Ascot in September is not too fanciful thinking.

Unfortunately, the rest of Goodwood didn’t go as well. Sour Mash was far too keen for his own good over a trip that may turn out not to suit him anyway in the mile-and-a-half handicap on Wednesday, while Acrostic was never able to get near enough the rail or close enough to the leaders after a slightly tardy start in the Totesport Mile on Friday – a mark of 105, 11lb higher than he has ever won off anyway, means he

Field Of Dream - will have next race at 10f

needs everything to drop right in these big handicaps. Manighar was below his best again in the Glorious Stakes and suspect stamina was certainly not to blame on this occasion. His performance had us baffled as we though he went into the race in the best form that we have ever had him. It might be that he needs holding up longer than he was on Saturday and that he also wants softer ground than he has had for all his races in England. Contredanse ran as well as could have been expected in the Nassau Stakes given that she was held up at the rear in which the race wasn’t run as we expected it to be – the idea was to sit out the back and try to pick the leaders off late if possible in the expectation that Barshiba would set a much stronger gallop than she did – but the strong early pace didn’t materialise and we were never able to get competitive. That said, she saw here race out strongly and though the Listed Alice Keppel back here is a possibility, a trip to Ireland for the Ireland for the Blandford Stakes or a trip to Deauville look likelier targets for her next race. Field Of Dream possibly exceeded expectations a little bit in the opening Listed race on the Saturday in finishing third to Critical Moment, and now he settles better we will look to step him up to a mile and a quarter. Conversely, our other Goodwood runner Rock N Roll Ransom was taking a big step up in trip in the concluding handicap over a mile and three furlongs and didn’t seem to stay despite getting stuck in no mans land in the middle of the track away from where the race was unfolding. He’s better than this and will make up into a good handicapper in time, so shouldn’t be written off on the basis of this run.

Posted on 01 Aug 2010 by Graeme

Goodwood news

Things were rather quiet last weekend but Start Right provided us with a good win at Newmarket and there were promising efforts in defeat as well from Sour Mash and Becqu Adoree. At the end of last season Start Right looked as if he might want a trip this year but after starting him off at 1m2f at Sandown he began to show us more speed in his work at home and it has been in the back of our minds for a while now to drop him to 1m . That decision seemed the right one after his recent run in that hot 1m2f handicap at the July meeting that is working out so well where he was too keen for much of the way. Looking back on his performance at Goodwood before that, where he travelled so strongly on the bridle for a long way, it is perhaps something we should have tried earlier but we will keep him at 1m for now and he is a likley runner in the handicap over that trip on the opening day at Goodwood next week. Sour Mash will also run at Goodwood next week in the 1m4f Racing UK Handicap on Wednesday. He’s been kept off the course by a combination of few suitable races and a need to keep him and his owner’s Rebel Soldier apart, but he looked to have improved last Friday night in a race that wouldn’t have suited him ideally in that it turned into a sprint and he ended up being beaten by a horse with strong form at shorter distances. He’s come out of that race very well and though we are taking a slight risk in running him again so quickly, he promises to improve a fair bit more for the longer distance. Becqu Adoree won’t be seen at Goodwood but she has the Chalice Stakes at Newbury as her next target. It was good to see her finish her race off more strongly than she had at Haydock and Warwick and she might well have been fourth had she not encountered trouble in running. She handled the fast ground perfectly well, but it will be interesting to see how she fares on easier ground again over here now that she has rediscovered her form as she handled soft conditions very well when progressive in France last year.

This weekend our hopes rest with Summit Surge in the Sky Bet York Stakes at York on Saturday and Mabait in the Listed Pomfret Stakes (also sponsored by Sky) on Sunday. Summit Surge’s participation depends to a certain extent on the weather as we can’t stress enough that he needs very fast ground and, for the time being at least, York has missed most of the rain that has recently deluged other parts of Yorkshire. It’s a hot race and he obviously has a bit to find at the weights but he’s missed a couple of recent options because of the ground and with Rainbow Peak and Stotsfold not taking up their entries the race has cut up a bit lighter than we might have expected. Mabait also had the option of the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood but now he’s out of handicaps 1m probably suits him better than 7f and he would have less to find at any rate with the potential opposition at Pontefract than he would at Goodwood.

Besides the two already mentioned, we have several other decent chances at Goodwood. Purple Moon will go for the Goodwood Cup, where he must have a good chance so long as the ground is on the fast side – or at the very least, isn’t overwatered – while another of our budding stayers Kazbow heads for the 1m6f ROA Summer Stakes. We must admit we are a bit surprised to see him so short in the betting for the Ebor seeing as he was officially rated just 79 prior to his last run and whether he deserved an 11lb rise for beating the same horse in successive races remains to be seen. We should know more after Tuesday whether he is a bona-fide Ebor candidate or not, but whatever happens we are sure to see a better horse when he steps up to 2m. Manighar heads for the Glorious Stakes over 1m4f after failing to stay 2m at Sandown last time, while the luckless Acrostic goes for the totesport Mile. Rock N Roll Ransom was an intended runner in the 1m2f Summer Handicap on Thursday but isn’t qualified so heads instead for the 1m3f handicap sponsored by Blue Square that opens the meeting on Friday. Our Oaks d’Italia winner Contredanse, mad as it seems, will run in the Nassau Stakes on the Saturday and we are going there purely and simply because, hard as it is to believe, there are very few other races around she is qualified for. Field of Dream will make up our Goodwood team – he has an engagement in the 1m Listed Thoroughbred Stakes.

Regular readers might be surprised to see Forte Dei Marmi missing from our Goodwood team but he will go instead to Haydock in August for a Heritage Handicap over 1m2f on Shergar Cup day. The thinking behind that is that he is a horse that needs time between his races and Haydock gives us another week or so with him at home. Furthermore, the Haydock race is worth more than his Goodwood alternative and is likely to come up lighter with more of his prospective opponents focussing on the greater prestige at Goodwood. Hopefully, Haydock will tell us once and for all whether he wants to stay at this trip or go back to 1m.

Finally we have some news on Bauer who has been back on the gallops with the rest of the string lately. We haven’t done anything serious with him and won’t do until next week, and don’t have any immediate race targets for him either, but it’s not too fanciful to think that if after a couple of races he shows us that he retains most of his ability, a return trip to Melbourne might not be out of the question.

Posted on 23 Jul 2010 by Graeme

Weekend reflections

We haven’t had as many winners as we would have liked over the past eight days or so, for all there have been one or two excellent performances in that time, none more so than from Drunken Sailor in the John Smith’s Silver Cup at York at the weekend. Carrying top weight of 9-13 off an official mark of 110, Drunken Sailor came thete to win his race only to find himself in front for too long. The fact he finished so far clear of the rest means that his new official rating will effectively rule him out of handicaps from now on, at least over here, but his performance confirmed what we had suspected after Newcastle, which is that he is developing into the ideal candidate for the Melbourne Cup. We have been notified that he can expect a weight of 52.5k at Flemington, so the likely plan for him now is that he will head to the March Stakes at Goodwood and then into quarantine ahead of a trip to Australia taking in the Caulfield Cup as well.

Hopefully, he will still be joined there by Manighar. He clearly disappointed those that had made him odds on at Sandown the weekend before last, but we were left with the strong impression that he didn’t stay two miles on that testing track despite having plenty of winning form at around that trip in France. At Sandown, Manighar came there travelling best of all, and, for all the fast ground might have also have been an issue being by Linamix, he left Kieren with the feeling he didn’t get home. We all know that races in France tend to be steadily run, and the suspicion has to be that he settled his races there with a turn of foot. The plan now with Manighar is to drop him back in trip and get him going forward again. In a way, looking ahead to Australia, it’s a relief to know that Manighar isn’t an out-and-out stayer. That type of horse doesn’t win the Melbourne Cup and both Bauer and Purple Moon were essentially mile-and-three-quarter horses over here. That may well be Manighar’s best trip.

Other reflections on last week are that the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes probably came a bit too soon for Man Of Iron after his reappearance in the Fred Archer following a long layoff. We’ll see how he is in a couple of weeks and then take things from there. Forte Dei Marmi ran another disappointing race at York for whatever reason in the John Smith’s Cup. It might just be coincidence that he has run two modest races now at York (Mabait, funnily enough, has run only two poor races in the last two seasons and both have been at the July Course at Newmarket) but he once again looked something of a non stayer and though his win in the Zetland Gold Cup seemed to show that he stayed a mile and a quarter, we’ll have to think carefully about which trip we try him at next. Acrostic also deserves a positive mention after just coming up short in his attempt to win the Coral Challenge at Sandown for the second successive year. The only runner in the frame to have made his effort from off the pace, Acrostic is now up on a mark of 105 after that which means his time in handicaps is now nearly over. He will head to the Glorious Goodwood next for the big mile handicap, but there is a possibility he could also drop back to seven furlongs for one of the big heritage handicaps at some point too. At least we ended the week with a winner when our promising three-year-old Rock N Roll Ransom scored at Salisbury on Saturday. Unfortunately the eight-length gap back to the third will probably ensure that the official handicapper hikes him up the handicap, even though there are reasons for thinking that none of those behind the first two showed their form, and that means that we will probably have to step him up in trip to a mile and a quarter next time. He’s probably got a good handicap in him at some point, but we don’t have any immediate plans.

This weekend looks being a fairly low key one. Sour Mash is an interesting three-year-old prospect who goes to Newmarket on Friday for the mile-and-a quarter handicap but our most high-profile runner of the weekend is Summit Surge who runs in the Listed Steventon Stakes at Newbury so long as the ground stays fast.

Posted on 12 Jul 2010 by Graeme

Khor Sheed and other reflections

Last week was another successful one with pride of place on the Saturday going to the filly Khor Sheed in the Empress Stakes. For all this isn’t usually the strongest of contests, Khor Sheed deserves plenty of credit considering that she was taking on faster and better fillies on ground much quicker than she had encountered at Haydock. We were encouraged beforehand that two of the fillies that had tried to match strides with her at Haydock had both come out and won since and Khor Sheed gave that form another boost with a tidy win, for all she the second stopping once she hit the hill might have made Khor Sheed look a bit more impressive than she was. It’s not often that we run a maiden in a Listed race, so the hint was there to be taken, and her sights are now set on the Sweet Solera back at Newmarket. She could have stayed at six furlongs – Kieren certainly thought that she has the speed for it - but the Cherry Hinton will come too soon and her breeding suggests a step up in trip is the right thing to do.

Khor Sheed on the gallops

Drunken Sailor was unlucky in the Northumberland Plate as a scuffed start and some early trouble in running ahead of him in the run to the first bend meant that what we had anticipated might be a decent position early on went west. To finish where he did from an unpromising position entering the straight was an excellent effort and though he has gone up 3lb to 110 as a consequence, his effort opens up more options for us. Three months ago we felt he wasn’t particularly handicapped but he has continued to surprise us with his versatility as well as improvement and at this early stage looks very much an ideal type for the Melbourne Cup. One small problem that might yet prevent him getting there is that he doesn’t yet fulfil the rather strange criteria for entry, having not won a race with the necessary prize money over 2300m or more. He’s a possible for the John Smith’s Silver Cup at York next weekend, and if we can win that then we can give Australia some serious thought.

Another horse whose options have increased as a result of last weekend is Man Of Iron. Considering it was his first race since winning the Breeders’ Cup Marathon and we were sure he would need the race, and then found himself in a race that ended up less of a test of stamina than seemed likely beforehand, he shaped very well. The BHA handicappers have kindly allotted him separate turf and all weather marks as a result, which isn’t of any consequence right now, as our remit is to try and win a Group 1 or 2 race at a mile and a half over here to try and boost his stallion value. That’s very much where our energies will be concentrated for now, but if Man Of Iron doesn’t quite come up to that standard, we’ll have to look at something else for him…….there’s a little race called the Ebor that we like to win that closes on Tuesday.

Drunken Sailor - unlucky in the Northumberland Plate

Mabait seems fine after his puzzling no show in the Criterion Stakes. The race didn’t pan out ideally for him in the respect it was something of a tactical affair and he saw too much daylight but it was disappointing to see him beaten so far out. Perhaps it’s a coincidence but he ran poorly on the only other time he has been to the July Course. We’ve no immediate plans for him.

We touched on Seta’s win the Eternal Stakes last week, but just to add that we have made an entry in the Matron Stakes for her and if all goes well and to plan, she might end her year with two cracks at a Group 1 as the Sun Chariot is also very much in our minds. She won’t have any more runs at seven furlongs this year.

This weekend we have several chances. Fiery Lad goes in the Old Newton Cup and might well surprise a few despite top weight. He got too far back at Ascot in the Wolferton at Ascot but the longer straight here promises to be in his favour and he is an unexposed type at the trip up against largely exposed sorts who have tried it already. At Sandown Manighar looks to have Samuel, King Of Wands and Aajel to beat in the Esher Stakes where the step up in trip will suit him, but Acrostic looks to have it all to do in his bid to win the valuable mile handicap for the second year running, though he did manage to overcome stall 3 last year. This stiffer track than Kempton should help Buffett in the mile-and-a-quarter handicap but he’ll probably go up in trip after this.

Posted on 02 Jul 2010 by Graeme

Presvis out of Eclipse next wekend.....

Presvis will not be running in the Eclipse at Sandown next week. Having reviewed his Ascot performance again, we felt he ran flat, possibly on account of the busy worldwide schedule he has already had this year, and he will be given a rest now.

Seta (nearside) having a workout

Long may the horses continue to run as well as they have been doing and it was very encouraging yesterday to see Seta carry on from where she left off at Leicester by taking the step up to Listed grade in her stride at Warwick. The Eternal Stakes isn’t traditionally one of the stronger races of its type, and in beating an 86-rated rival with another one rated 90 close in behind it could be argued that perhaps we didn’t have much to beat, but considering that Seta was tackling a sharper 7f than at Leicester and then didn’t get the best of breaks before racing more keenly than would have been ideal, then to still show the turn of foot that she did is very heartening indeed. It seems unlikely that Seta will stay at this trip, as not only are there very few suitable options for her but we feel she will be well suited by the step back up to a mile. We’ll keep things low key with her for now; the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown and the Dick Hern at Bath (a race we won with Annabelle’s Charm last year) are both possible options in August with the Group 3 Prix Lieurey at Deauville commanding attention too.

In our summing up of the action from the past week we should also mention Major Phil who ran a cracking race under his penalty in the Carlisle Bell. He was turned out quickly after his win at Doncaster, but it’s not often that the opportunity to run in a 0-80 for such good prize money comes along and seeing as it was his last chance in that grade then we couldn’t turn it down. Unfortunately on the day there was a track bias which worked in favour of the front runner and eventual winner Camerooney, and in the circumstances Major Phil probably did very well to finish as close as he did from so far back more in the middle of the track. He’ll have a break now, and he’s likely to be seen over an extra 2f when he comes back.

This Saturday we have several chances in some good races at Newmarket and Newcastle. We kick off at Newmarket with Khor Sheed in the Listed Empress Stakes. It’s an unusual move for us to head straight into Listed company with a two-year-old maiden, but the race doesn’t look a strong one and lack of experience probably isn’t the handicap in two-year-old races that it can be with older horses. She’s been working well and it’s interesting to note that two of the horses that raced in the front rank alongside her on her debut at Haydock (where we felt she did too much running too soon in the soft conditions) have come out and won since. She should get a lead tomorrow taking on speedier fillies, and keeping her at 6f won’t be a problem for all that a step up in trip is on the cards sooner or later.

The Fred Archer sees the reappearance as well as first run for us of the Breeder’s Cup Marathon winner Man Of Iron. He’s been pleasing us of late with some nice pieces of work and looks to have more of a turn of foot than one might imagine from a study of his race record. Given that he stays further than this, it’s in his favour that despite the small field that there are two or possibly even three potential front runners and he will have no troubling handling the likely fast ground. He might need the run considering his long absence, but other that that he should go well.

Start Right who was second at Goodwood earlier this week

Mabait drops back to 7f for the Criterion Stakes after his gallant effort over the extended mile at Epsom where we felt he didn’t quite get home after making good ground from the rear in a race that worked against him in that he couldn’t get any cover from an wide draw and had to race wide. Ideally he wants a decent pace at this trip and with Red Jazz in the field he should get that, not least if Ashram decides to press the leader as he is inclined to do. Mabait’s Epsom run shows that he’s up to this grade and from a form point of view, looks to have as good a chance as any.

Up at Newcastle, The Drunken Sailor takes his chance in the Northumberland Plate. Rather as with Purple Moon ahead of the Gold Cup, we don’t know whether he will stay or not and stall 14 is no help either given the very short run to the first bend, but there seems little point dropping in and holding him up as that way we have the potential to learn less than if we ride him into a position and see how things turn out. There has been a big track bias at Newcastle this season towards either rail, so we won’t want to stray too far off it whatever happens, but how he gets on might well depend to a large extent on where he is positioned after the runners have gone half a mile or so.

Posted on 25 Jun 2010 by Graeme

Royal Ascot reflections

We had a rather mixed Ascot if truth be told with very pleasing efforts from Afsare and Purple Moon but some frustrating efforts as well.

Afsare’s win has to take pride of place, for all that we might not have been too popular on the day denying the Queen a winner in what was an exciting and very tight finish to the Hampton Court Stakes. He’s progressed very well in a short space of time and showed that we did the right thing by moving him up to a mile and a quarter from a mile with strong staying performance, if anything deserving extra credit in that he managed to beat one whose good previous form (which had come at a mile) looked to have been seriously underrated by the official handicapper. It was also very satisfying for Afsare’s owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum, who was present at the meeting and had bred and raced both the dam of Dubawi, Zomaradah, and Afsare's dam, Jumaireyah. Afsare will have a deserved holiday now.

Purple Moon probably didn’t quite stay the last quarter mile of the Gold Cup but ran an excellent race even so, certainly ran well enough to convince us that he is best off this season following a Cup campaign. The God Cup turned out to be a thorough test of stamina, one that we weren’t entirely sure would suit Purple Moon before the race, but though he saw the trip out better than most of his opponents, and even briefly looked early in the straight as if he was going to take a big hand himself, he couldn’t then pull out any extra and the first two were starting to pull away from him again near the line. We understand that Rite Of Passage might not be seen again until the Irish St Leger, but there is every chance that we will bump into Age Of Aquarius somewhere along the Cup trail, though we also have the Lonsdale at York as an alternative and possibly the Ebor as well, though we will need to do some more research into the record of top weights (he would most likely have to carry 9-12) before we commit him to an entry in that race.

Field Of Dream ran well in the Jersey Stakes all things considered. If anything, the ground was probably on the lively side and the trip was a bit too sharp, and taking into account also that he was shuffled back to the rear when hampered early on in a race that wasn’t run at a strong pace, then we can’t be too critical. He’ll run over a mile next, if we can find a suitable Listed contest for him, and he may even get a mile and a quarter now that he is learning to settle better.

Acrostic’s performance in the Hunt Cup was a puzzling one as he almost ran as if he was just in need of the race. He would have finished a couple of lengths closer had he not been hampered and that will probably ensure that his mark remains unchanged, though even if it was to drop to 102 or 101 it still wouldn’t alter things too much as a horse rated between 101 and 105 has its handicap campaign dictated by the programme book and as far as he is concerned that means his next race will be a return trip to Sandown early next month for the contest he won last year off a rating of 94.

Presvis didn’t show his best form in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and it may have been our fault in that we have been trying to work our way around the situation that he always seems to find himself in, being last turning into the straight. As we have said before, no matter how many times we jump him out of the stalls at home the result is always the same, so we might as well leave himself to his devices from now on and let him find his own way into the race as he ended up racing a bit too keenly too soon here. The plan is still to go for the Eclipse, so long as he continues to train and look well, which he had been doing ahead of Ascot, showing no sign of ‘travel tiredness’ and hopefully Aidan O’Brien will end up reading this and help us out by fielding several pacemakers!

Day Of The Eagle was very unfortunate in the Buckingham Palace Stakes and now heads for the Bunbury Cup. He was just about to start his run on the far rail when badly hampered in an incident which the eventual winner was fortunate to miss, and was then sensibly allowed to coast home. Whether he really needs a mile now he is up at this level, or whether he can still be effective at seven remains to be seen, as he looked a bit chopped for early speed at Ascot. Hopefully he will show that the shorter trip isn’t a problem as apart from the big handicap at Goodwood, a race that is draw dependant anyway, all the remaining ‘big money’ handicaps are at seven furlongs, two of them back at Ascot.

Fiery Lad probably needs a mile and a half now and a track with a longer straight than Ascot, as he’d shown at Epsom that he takes a long time to warm to his task. Where he’ll go next given his current rating, we’re not sure, but trying him in headgear might be an option as well.

Posted on 20 Jun 2010 by Graeme